基于马尔科夫链转移概率极限分布的降水过程持续性研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

江志红  常奋华  丁裕国 《气象学报》2013,71(2):286-294

各地不同气候条件所具有的天气状态转移概率的极限分布实际上代表了各地天气气候的持续性和转折性特征,同时也表明了它的可预报期限。从马尔科夫链理论出发,初步研究了中国160个代表测站逐日天气状态演变过程的极限分布。结果表明,转移概率的极限分布不但其空间分布有明显差异,而且不同季节的极限分布也有明显差异。例如,有的地区仅有2 d持续期,有的可达4—6 d或更长,充分反映出不同地区因其影响的天气系统差异所造成的逐日天气气候的持续性和转折性特征的差异。其研究意义在于,由此可作为天气气候分型区划的一种理论依据。统计分析结果表明,就全中国平均而言,夏季持续期最短,持续期由北向南、由西向东呈增加趋势,且春季平均降水持续期为5.1 d,夏季平均为5.0 d,秋季平均为6.5d,冬季平均为6.2 d。可见夏半年比冬半年的降水持续期短,这可能是因为春夏季的天气系统比较复杂且中小尺度天气系统较多的缘故。这从另一侧面再次证明,各地逐日降水天气状态演变过程具有一定的天气气候状态自然转折的持续性即自然天气周期的气候状况,从而为短期天气预报提供了气候背景。  相似文献   

线性不等式约束平差模型的一种解算方法     

曾磊  左廷英  罗亮 《北京测绘》2010,(4):1-3,17

不等式约束是实际测量中存在的一种约束,本文利用整标集法求解附线性不等式约束平差模型。首先了介绍带有不等式约束平差的最小二乘问题转化成凸二次规划问题,然后在Kuhn-Tucker条件下把二次规划问题转换成线性互补问题的基础上,利用整标集法来求出参数的最佳估值,最后通过一个数值算例来说明了该方法的可行性。  相似文献   

Reply to the discussion by Conti R., De Sanctis L. and Viggiani G.M.B. on ‘Influence of diaphragm wall installation on the numerical analysis of deep excavation’ by Burlon S., Mroueh H. & Shahrour I.     

S. Burlon  H. Mroueh  I. Shahrour 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(11):1688-1690

The authors thank the discussers R.Conti, L.De Sanctis and G.M.B.Viggiani for their interest to the paper entitled ‘Influence of diaphragm wall installation on the numerical analysis of deep excavation’ and for providing the opportunity to submit additional information to clarify some issues. The authors broadly agree with the comments which deal with three main aspects of the paper: presence of water and type of analysis, constitutive modelling and numerical strategies. The present reply addresses some additional issues that the discussers find not clear on the original paper submitted by the writers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

GPS广播星历参数拟合算法及其分析     

吕志伟  易维勇  曾志林 《测绘学院学报》2010,(2)

利用地面观测资料定轨确定的卫星位置、进而计算出的卫星广播星历参数是进行卫星定位的基础。为了分析卫星星历拟合的精度和效率,推导了由卫星位置拟合GPS卫星广播星历参数的数学模型。并用算例分析了影响拟合效率的因素,分析了卫星位置有误差是对于卫星星历参数的影响。结果验证了所给出的算法的可行性和有效性。  相似文献   

Non-Darcian groundwater flow in leaky aquifers     

ZEKAI ŞEN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):595-606

Abstract

A simplified method has been developed for solving leaky aquifer non-Darcian flow hydraulics. The principle of volumetric approach is combined with the confined-aquifer, time-dependent drawdown equation in an observation well. The groundwater flow in the leaky aquifer is assumed to obey a non-Darcian flow law of exponential type. The results are obtained in the form of type-curve expressions from which the necessary bundles of curves are drawn for a set of selective non-Darcian flow aquifer parameters. Although application of the methodology appears as rather limited but it provides a scientific contribution and extension of leaky aquifer theory towards nonlinear flow conditions. The methodology developed herein is applied to some actual field data from the eastern sedimentary basin in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of a tidal river under influence of wading engineering groups     

陈珺  唐洪武  肖洋  嵇敏 《中国海洋工程》2013,27(6):829-842

By taking the Yong River for example in this paper, based on the multiple measured data during 1957 to 2009, the change process of runoff, tide feature, tidal wave, tidal influx and sediment transport are analyzed. Then a mathematical model is used to reveal the influence mechanism on hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of the wading engineering groups such as a tide gate, a breakwater, reservoirs, bridges and wharves, which were built in different periods. The results showed the hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of the Yong River changed obviously due to the wading engineering groups. The tide gate induced deformation of the tidal wave, obvious reduction of the tidal influx and weakness of the tidal dynamic, decrease of the sediment yield of flood and ebb tide and channel deposition. The breakwater blocked estuarine entrances, resulting in the change of the tidal current and the reduction of the tidal influx in the estuarine area. The large-scale reservoirs gradually made the decrease of the Yong River runoff. The bridge and wharf groups took up cross-section areas, the cumulative affection of which caused the increase of tidal level in the tidal river.  相似文献   

Effects of different operational modes on the flood‐induced turbidity current of a canyon‐shaped reservoir: case study on Liuxihe Reservoir,South China     

Sheng Wang  Xin Qian  Bo‐Ping Han  Lian‐Cong Luo  Rui Ye  Wen Xiong 《水文研究》2013,27(26):4004-4016

Suspended matter is an important indicator of water quality in freshwater systems. The flood‐induced turbidity current plays a dominant role in the seasonal dynamic of suspended matter in the Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45′50″N; 113°46′52″E), a large, stratified reservoir at the Tropic of Cancer in southern China. Field measurements show that loading and distribution of suspended matter in the reservoir differ in typical wet, dry and medium years, as a result of different discharge volumes and water level variation patterns. Using historical data and the practical demand for water supply and flood control, we generalized two feasible reservoir operational modes: flood impounding mode (drawing down the reservoir to a low level before flood events to impound inflow during the flooding season) and moderate level change mode (drawing down the reservoir to a moderate level before flood events, then keeping the level within the flood control level during runoff events). To examine the effects of different operational modes and outlet depths on the reservoir's flood‐induced turbidity current, a numerical simulation model was applied in three types of hydrological conditions. The results show that the mode with moderate drawdown and recharge processes can decrease loading of suspended matter in spring and promote turbidity current release during flood events, and upper withdrawal can improve the effects of turbid water release. We suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality management in the reservoir operation stage, severe artificial water level fluctuation being avoided and selective withdrawal becoming an optional management measure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

数字近景摄影测量建筑容积率调查技术研究     

王慧青  沙月进  王庆  胡璇 《测绘科学》2010,35(6):126-128

城市建筑容积率是城市土地利用集约化程度的一个重要标志。基于遥感影像进行容积率调查的方法应用范围广,但误差较大。本文将数字近景摄影测量技术应用于精准容积率调查,研究了基于数字地图的单张像片参数以及顾及空间固定条件的立体像对前方交会方法,实现高精度的三维坐标获取。本文将普通数码相机和PDA相结合,辅助以GPS和全站仪等,实现了价格低廉、应用灵活快速的容积率调查集成系统,能够现场完成数据采集、存储。  相似文献   

Effects of engineering geological condition on response of suspension bridges     

Junjie Wang  Shide Hu  Xiao Wei 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1999,18(4):345

The geological condition may vary largely from one support to another for a long span bridge. The effect of geological variability and spatial variation produced by propagation and coherence loss of seismic ground motion on the response of long span suspension bridges is investigated in this article. The case of Jiangyin Yangtse River Bridge, a suspension bridge with a main span of 1385 m, is studied in detail. Numerical results show that the geological difference at the supports has a significant effect on the seismic response of long span suspension bridges and, that it is unacceptable to neglect the difference. The effect of the propagation of seismic ground motion on the response of long span suspension bridges is far more important than that of the coherence loss. The response of bridges varies greatly with the horizontal apparent velocity in a very complex way, and there is a critical horizontal velocity for a given response quantity.  相似文献   

Analytical method of radiation by a wave energy device with dual rectangular floating bodies     

WANG Wensheng  YOU Yage  ZHANG Yunqiu  WU Bijun  YE Yin 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(3):106-115

The system with one floating rectangular body on the free surface and one submerged rectangular body has been applied to a wave energy conversion device in water of finite depth. The radiation problem by this device on a plane incident wave is solved by the use of an eigenfunction expansion method, and a new analytical expression for the radiation velocity potential is obtained. The wave excitation force is calculated via the known incident wave potential and the radiation potential with a theorem of Haskind employed. To verify the correctness of this method, an example is computed respectively through the bound element method and analytical method. Results show that two numerical methods. are in good agreement, which shows that the present method is applicable. In addition, the trends of hydrodynamic coefficients and wave force are analyzed under different conditions by use of the present analytical method.  相似文献